Methodology devised by the Institute for Mathematical Innovation has aided the development of an early warning system for detecting landslides by forecasting the soil moisture content following rainfall. The work has been published in the Journal of South American Earth Sciences, and was jointly authored by researchers based at São Paulo State University, Brazil; The National Center for Monitoring and Natural Disaster Alerts (CEMADEN), Brazil; Professor Tristan Pryer, Director of the IMI, University of Bath; and Noel Howley, Research Assistant with the IMI, University of Bath.
The research considered the increased frequency of extreme weather events caused by climate change and the number of occurrences of natural disasters associated with them. In particular, it looked at floods, flash floods and landslides which account for the highest number of natural disaster-related deaths in Brazil.
In regions with a long history of landslides, CEMADEN promoted the installation of a network of soil moisture sensors. This network was used to develop a system for moisture forecasting in critical zones. The results obtained indicate its potential as an important tool in the decision-making process for issuing landslide alerts, ultimately fostering greater resilience to natural hazards.