IMI research reveals top ten most improbable FA Cup third round results


The Football Association has today (7 Jan 2022) released research conducted by the Institute for Mathematical Innovation that verifies a list of the least likely scorelines of the last 50 years of FA Cup third-round results.

Dr Adwaye Rambojun and Professor Andreas Kyprianou from the IMI built a bespoke mathematical model that uses Opta data from 8,152 FA Cup games and takes into account the overall probability of the lower league teams reaching the third round, the difference in league status and the timing and sequence of the goals scored in each tie.

The research has identified that Woking’s 4-2 victory over West Bromwich Albion at the Hawthorns in 1991 was by far the least likely third round result in the last 50 years of the competition, with a staggering one in 15,959,312 chance of winning.

Dr Rambojun commented on Woking’s victory that  “It’s an outcome that defies logic but, as our ranking proves, on any given day the unthinkable can happen. That’s the magic of the Emirates FA Cup and we have seen it time and again throughout the competition’s illustrious history.”

Read the full article here

IMI would like to thank the RIS Consultancy team for expediting the contract process and enabling this research to happen at short notice.

Download Emirates FA Cup Giant-Killings The 10 Least Probable Scorelines January 2022